New German elections are only one of many scenarios: Rasmussen Global expert

Monday 20th November — Rasmussen Global Senior Adviser and foreign policy expert Olaf Böhnke on the breakdown of the German coalition talks. He said: “Jamaica seems dead, at least for the moment. But Germany is not yet on the verge of calling new elections. “For the next few days, President Steinmeier will take centre stage […]

Monday 20th November — Rasmussen Global Senior Adviser and foreign policy expert Olaf Böhnke on the breakdown of the German coalition talks.

He said:
“Jamaica seems dead, at least for the moment. But Germany is not yet on the verge of calling new elections.

“For the next few days, President Steinmeier will take centre stage to weigh up his options. I believe a minority coalition of Merkel’s CDU/CSU with either negotiation partner is still possible. An alliance with the liberal FDP was very popular in the polls, and the FDP would be electorally punished for walking away. However, the CDU and Greens share a common bond of feeling betrayed by the FDP, which could bring them closer together. But, regardless of the formation, the numbers just don’t add up for Chancellor Merkel.

“The continuation of the Grand Coalition with the Social Democrats has been ruled out; it is still possible, but the socialists’ price will likely be Mrs Merkel’s withdrawal from the Chancellery.

“In an uncertain time, one thing can be counted on: the new German government will not be formed for many months yet, and possibly not until next Easter.

“Merkel has emerged weaker out of the elections, leaving a vacuum in European leadership just as the EU was beginning to regain a positive outlook. London should be watching with concern as Berlin’s political focus continues to look inward for quite some time and the clock is ticking, making the current EU position unlikely to move. Macron must also decide if he is willing to wait for Berlin, or start building his own coalition for reforms in the EU.”

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