Brexit phase II: potential rifts among the EU27

As Brexit negotiations are entering the next phase focusing on the EU-UK future relationship, the unity that has prevailed so far within the EU27 will come under increasing pressure. The issues at stake in phase I – especially financial obligations and citizens’ rights – were unifying factors for the EU27. The second phase, however, might […]

As Brexit negotiations are entering the next phase focusing on the EU-UK future relationship, the unity that has prevailed so far within the EU27 will come under increasing pressure.

The issues at stake in phase I – especially financial obligations and citizens’ rights – were unifying factors for the EU27. The second phase, however, might present more challenges.

Major splits are unlikely. But varying interests, levels of Brexit exposure, more vocal business sectors, and different opinions on the future architecture of the EU27 and Eurozone could create more unpredictability than seen so far. Businesses will need to broaden their monitoring, and follow key EU capitals as closely as they have done so far with London. Much will continue to depend on the approach of the British Government, which is still to identify a coherent set of objectives for Phase II around which the whole Cabinet can unite.

Part of a new series, Rasmussen Global deciphers some of the factors that could affect EU27 unity within four key states: France, Germany, Poland and Spain. These states either represent major power centres, or states most exposed, economically or politically, to Brexit.

For more information on these issues, or for other Brexit-related work please contact Olaf Böhnke obo@rasmussenglobal.com

Download the note here.

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