Sanctions are a vital tool in targeting Russia’s war capabilities.

The EU progressively imposed sanctions against Russia following the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU adopted new, sweeping sanctions against Moscow.

However, Russia has been effective at devising schemes for restoring supply chains interrupted by sanctions.

Our sanctions experts at Rasmussen Global have been tracking and shaping the EU’s evolving sanctions regime since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. In our latest paper, we outline opportunities for strengthening Europe’s sanctions regime, and propose new areas to target in order to deprive the Kremlin of the funding it needs to continue its war in Ukraine.

To read the paper, please click here: Rasmussen Global – Sanctions Memo – Fall 2024

Open letter from Anders Fogh Rasmussen and members of the Friends of Armenia Network ahead of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan

To Those Attending COP29 In Baku,

The irony of the world’s most important climate conference being held in Baku will certainly not be lost on you. Fossil fuels represent 90 per cent of all Azeri exports.

But this year’s COP must not be a repeat of 2023’s greenwashing exercise in Dubai.

Last year, Azerbaijan’s autocratic regime launched a military offensive against the ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to the cleansing of approximately 120,000 ethnic Armenians. Following a 2022 incursion into Armenia, Azerbaijan occupies more than 200 sq. kilometers of territory of the Republic of Armenia.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s internal repression continues to intensify, with well-documented crackdowns on activists and opposition groups. Azerbaijan has also refused to release Armenian prisoners of war, despite international calls for their repatriation.

Despite peace talks between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Baku has recently ground negotiations to a halt with increasing demands for concessions from Armenia.

President Aliyev has continued to escalate his rhetoric, having repeatedly described the Republic of Armenia as “western Azerbaijan,” and is drawing closer to Russia, who did nothing as Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.

Despite this, and in the face of Armenia’s historic military and economic reliance on Russia, Prime Minister Pashinyan has made the bold decision to consolidate Armenian democracy and seek closer ties with the west—work that we are proud to support.

Yerevan has organized military exercises with the United States, sought new economic ties with Europe, ratified the ICC Rome Statute, and announced its intention to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s post-Soviet answer to NATO. At a difficult moment for global democracy, Armenia—living in the long shadows of Russia, Turkey, and Iran—is a rare bright spot.

However, cementing Armenia’s democratic foundations and securing a lasting peace in the South Caucasus will ultimately require Europe to play a more concerted role—including at COP29.

Earlier this year, European leaders took a significant step by agreeing to use funds from the European Peace Facility to provide non-lethal defensive equipment to Armenia. More should now follow to enhance Armenia’s deterrence capabilities and lessen its dependence on Russia.

Lethal military aid, joint exercises between European and Armenian forces, and the significant expansion of the EU monitoring mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border would be welcome, important, and timely steps towards strengthening Armenia’s defensive capabilities and preventing future Azeri hostility. Europe should also liberalize trade in the service sector with Armenia, which has significant untapped potential.

These proposals form the foundation of a report we authored earlier this year on how to deepen ties between Europe and Armenia.

But equally important this November is the need for those of you attending COP29 to stand up for the values that Europe represents.

Europe has long viewed itself as a neutral arbiter between Azerbaijan and Armenia—but that approach is no longer fit for purpose.

In visiting Baku, you must shine a light on Azerbaijan’s repression at home. You must stand up for democratic Armenia and make clear that Azerbaijan’s hostility is unacceptable—and that further aggression against Armenia would have severe consequences.

Europe remains a major trading partner for Azerbaijan. We have leverage—and we must use it. This must include making clear to Baku that the time has come to reach an agreement for a sustainable peace with Armenia, to secure the safe and dignified return of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the immediate release of all Armenian prisoners of war held in Azerbaijan.

Peace would open the door to new economic opportunities across the South Caucasus. The Armenian government has proposed a “Crossroads of Peace” of energy, transport, and logistics connections across the South Caucasus, which if implemented, could bring significant economic benefits for Europe while advancing the cause of peace in the region.

A peace agreement would reduce Russia’s influence and lay the foundation for Armenia’s continued westward trajectory. But most importantly, an agreement would help usher in a new era of prosperity and security for both Armenians and Azeris at a time when the people of both countries are looking to turn the page on decades of conflict and hostility.

The Aliyev regime have said they want this year’s climate summit to be a “COP of Peace.”

You must make clear to Azerbaijan that a “COP of Peace” must begin by agreeing a lasting peace with Armenia.

Sincerely yours,

As members of the Friends of Armenia Network

Anders Fogh Rasmussen: Secretary General of NATO (2009-2014), Prime Minister of Denmark (2001-2009)

Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz: Member of the European Parliament (2019-…), Prime Minister of Poland (1996-1997), Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (2001-2005)

Charles Flanagan: Member of the Irish Oireachtas (2020-…), Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence (2020-…), Ireland’s Minister of Justice (2017-2020), Ireland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (2014-2017)

Raimundas Lopata: Member of the Lithuanian Seimas (2020-…), Chair of the Parliamentary Friendship Group with Armenia (2020-…)

Dietmar Nietan: Member of the German Bundestag (1998-2002, 2005-…), Treasurer of the Social Democratic Party.

Following Russia’s illegal 2022 invasion of Ukraine, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy asked Anders Fogh Rasmussen to co-lead with his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, an international working group on long-term security commitments for Ukraine. 

The resulting Kyiv Security Compact—a proposal for a web of international security guarantees for Ukraine—became the foundation of a G7 joint declaration on security guarantees co-signed by NATO allies at the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius. 23 allies of Ukraine have since signed comprehensive, long-term security agreements, including the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. At the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington, these agreements were formalized in the Ukraine Compact, bringing to life the vision proposed by Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Andriy Yermak. 

While the security agreements outlined in the Ukraine Compact are not a replacement for Ukraine’s future in NATO, they will serve as an important bridge to membership and are unparalleled in modern history. 

Below, you can find an overview of the different Capability Coalitions, as well as a document containing links to the individual security agreements between Ukraine and its allies. 

To access links to individual security agreements, please click here.

Statement by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen marking the Alliance’s seventy-fifth anniversary:

“Born from the ashes of the Second World War, NATO has maintained peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic for seventy-five years—and it is stronger today than ever before.

As we mark NATO’s seventy-fifth anniversary, it is essential that we prepare our Alliance for the next twenty-five years—and beyond. That means dealing with the reality of a militarised and aggressive Russia. Europe must urgently increase its investments in our collective defence. Europe doing more does not weaken NATO, it reinforces its foundations.

The best response to Russia’s aggression is strength, resolve, and unity. That is what we must show by inviting Ukraine to join the Alliance without delay. Long-term security in the Euro-Atlantic area will only be possible with Ukraine at the heart of NATO.

NATO is the bedrock of security for more than nine hundred and sixty-million people, spanning thirty-two countries across two continents.

Our Alliance is one of history’s great achievements—and may we never take it for granted.”

Former prime ministers, commissioners, ministers, and sitting parliamentarians release report calling for more Europe in Armenia; more Armenia in Europe.

Armenia is pivoting to the West. The European Union has an interest in supporting this reorientation in order to strengthen Armenia’s democracy and help bring lasting peace to the South Caucasus.

The Friends of Armenia Network, led by former Danish Prime Minister and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, today released a report which outlines a detailed vision for making Armenia’s Western trajectory irreversible.

This approach includes proposals for building up Armenian resilience and lessening its dependence on Russia; deepening trade ties between Armenia and the European Union; and enhancing Armenia’s border security and security cooperation with Europe.

Ultimately, the report argues that Armenia’s accession to the European Union is central to making Armenia’s foreign policy pivot and democratic transition last.

Speaking following the release of the report, Anders Fogh Rasmussen said:

“Armenia is a democracy in an incredibly difficult geopolitical neighbourhood. Prime Minister Pashinyan’s government has made the courageous decision to diversify Armenia’s foreign policy and move towards the West.

“The world’s democracies—and the European Union, in particular—must act to support Armenia in this pivot.

“This support has become even more important following Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive against the ethnic-Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the continued threat posed by Azeri forces.

“Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has shown that the European Union must do far more to stand up for democracies in its direct neighbourhood.

“Europe has an opportunity to support a stable democracy and lasting peace in the South Caucasus. Today’s report outlines the tangible steps that can and should be taken, ultimately leading to Armenia joining the European Union.”

The full report is available here: FAN Report – Deepening EU-Armenia relations

List of signatories:

Anders Fogh Rasmussen: Chairman of the Friends of Armenia Network, Founder of Rasmussen Global, NATO Secretary General (2009-2014), Prime Minister of Denmark (2001-2009).

Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz: Member of the European Parliament (2019-…), Prime Minister of Poland (1996-1997), Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (2001-2005).

Štefan Füle: European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy (2010-2014), Minister of European Affairs of the Czech Republic (2009).

Charles Flanagan: Member of the Irish Oireachtas (2020-…), Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence (2020-…), Ireland’s Minister of Justice (2017-2020), Ireland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (2014-2017).

Raimundas Lopata: Member of the Lithuanian Seimas (2020-…), Chair of the Parliamentary Friendship Group with Armenia (2020-…)

Dietmar Nietan: Member of the German Bundestag (1998-2002, 2005-…), Treasurer of the Social Democratic Party.

Anne-Laurence Petel: Member of the French Assemblée nationale (2017-…), Chair of the Parliamentary Friendship Group with Armenia (2022-…).

As observers:

Dalia Grybauskaitė: President of Lithuania (2009-2019), EU Commissioner for Budget (2004-2009).

Thorniké Gordadzé: Georgia’s State Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration (2012), Georgia’s Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs (2010-2012).

Peter Semneby: EU Special Representative to the South Caucasus (2006-2011).

The report was drafted by the independent Friends of Armenia Network and does not represent the policy of the Armenian government.

Since March 2023, Rasmussen Global has been working with the Armenian government to improve connections with the European Union and the wider democratic world.

The Russian war in Ukraine has highlighted the importance of dual-use space capabilities. 

With strong economic incentives for the deployment of mega-constellations of several thousands of expandable satellites,  valuables resources in low-Earth orbit (LEO) have become increasingly congested and contested. LEO fragility is defined by the growing risks to the integrity of space systems and to the safe conduct of space operations in this environment.

In the latest paper, Rasmussen Global’s experts outline the concept of LEO fragility and encourage law makers to adopt pre-emptive measures in the framework of new legislations to preserve our autonomy in space. 

Since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, the EU has progressively imposed sanctions against Russia. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 these have been vastly scaled up.

The European Commission will soon announce its 12th sanctions package. This will likely involve an import ban on Russian diamonds and the targeting of Russian ICT companies, among other elements. However, the EU and its Member States still face serious challenges in enforcing previously agreed sanctions. Enforcement becomes increasingly complex with every new round of sanctions.

One major difficulty is the significant variation between the competent authorities in different member states, as well as in enforcement mechanisms and penalties.

In the latest paper by Rasmussen Global experts, we outline how the EU develops new packages of sanctions, what are the major issues with enforcement, and set out recommendations on how they can be made more effective.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian defence industry have had to rapidly adapt. They have been forced to reconceptualise existing weapons as well as develop new ones, often utilising civilian systems for military purposes. The country has become both a laboratory and live testing ground for the deployment of evolving military technologies. Nowhere is this clearer than for drones and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.

While more primitive and limited in the number of systems available, Russia has progressively gained an edge both in the production and deployment of reconnaissance and strike drones. Combined with a long-standing edge in electronic warfare, Ukraine faces the challenge of scaling up both the quality and quantity of its systems to respond to Russian superiority in drone warfare.

Read the latest paper from Rasmussen Global experts on how Ukraine, with help of its allies, can regain its edge and win the drone war.

In Stockholm, Fredrik Wesslau joins as a Senior Advisor. Fredrik brings more than two decades of experience of security policy and geopolitics, including hands-on work in the field. He was until the end of 2022, Deputy Head of the EU Advisory Mission in Ukraine. Before that, Fredrik worked for the UN, EU, and OSCE in Kosovo, South Caucasus, and Sudan/South Sudan. He also worked on counter-piracy off the Horn of Africa. Fredrik adds to Rasmussen Global’s host of experts on geopolitics and particularly Ukraine.

In Copenhagen, Mathias Bay Lynggaard joins Rasmussen Global following more than a decade at the Danish Broadcasting Corporation. For the last five years, he was the host of Denmark’s most popular current affairs radio program, Orientering. He brings a wealth of experience from covering national politics and foreign affairs as a reporter, analyst, and host. Mathias will bolster Rasmusen Global’s work in Denmark and across Europe, focusing on energy, security, and geopolitics.

Bogdana Fedun strengthens Rasmussen Global’s presence in Kyiv, bringing wide range of experience in both politics and communications. She has been working closely on plans for Ukraine’s reconstruction after the war, and is a specialist on Ukraine’s relationship with Europe – most recently advising French entities on reform and reconstruction in Ukraine. She previously worked as an advisor at the French Assemblée Nationale. Bogdana will work on Rasmussen Global’s projects in Ukraine, advising businesses on opportunities and support for Ukraine.

In Brussels, Celine Emma la Cour joins from the European External Action Service (EEAS) where she focused on relations with Southeast Asia. Celine brings valuable experience from geopolitics, diplomacy and communications working for, among others, the Danish Defence Command, the International Secretariat of the Danish Parliament, and the Danish Embassy in Moscow. In Brussels, Celine will focus on
Rasmussen Global’s sovereign clients. Also in Brussels, Lise Erard has been promoted to Policy Advisor. Lise has experience in economics, international politics, and European affairs. She works primarily on Rasmussen Global’s aerospace and sovereign clients.

Speaking on the expansion, Rasmussen Global CEO Fabrice Pothier said:

“I am glad to welcome such new, diverse talents to our expanding team. We are on an exciting journey, helping our clients to make sense of this transformative era. Rasmussen Global is fast becoming the go-to firm in Europe on strategic affairs and geopolitics.”

Rasmussen Global founder Anders Fogh Rasmussen arrives today in Yerevan for a two-day visit to Armenia. During the trip, he will meet with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and other leading public officials. The former NATO Secretary General will also meet with figures from civil society and visit the Armenian regions most affected by the ongoing incursions by neighbouring Azerbaijan.

The visit aims to raise awareness of the humanitarian crisis caused by the blockade of the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, and the outside world.

Speaking ahead of the visit to Armenia, Anders Fogh Rasmussen said:

“Europe cannot close its eyes to a humanitarian crisis happening on our doorstep. The ongoing blockade of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijani actors is putting thousands of lives at risk. Since December, no civilian or commercial traffic has been able to reach Nagorno-Karabakh. This has left some 120,000 ethnic Armenian residents without access to essential goods and services, including life-saving medication and health care. Ongoing attacks on civil infrastructure, including gas an electricity supply, have also created far-reaching impacts on the economy, education and healthcare.”

“Unless Europe and the wider international community act, these risks becoming a humanitarian catastrophe. The EU must use its relationship with Azerbaijan, to push them to lift the blockade and fulfil their broader international commitments.

“I am also in Yerevan to show my support for Armenia’s burgeoning democracy. Since 2018, Armenia has made important steps forward. In a period when democratic rights have slipped globally, Armenia is the welcome exception. We must strengthen the relationship between the EU and Armenia, to secure peace in the region and support the Armenian people’s desire for a future based on stability, freedom, and democracy.”

For media requests during the visit, please contact Rasmussen Global Communications Director Tim Allan at tal@rasmussenglobal.com