Open letter from Anders Fogh Rasmussen and members of the Friends of Armenia Network ahead of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan
To Those Attending COP29 In Baku,
The irony of the world’s most important climate conference being held in Baku will certainly not be lost on you. Fossil fuels represent 90 per cent of all Azeri exports.
But this year’s COP must not be a repeat of 2023’s greenwashing exercise in Dubai.
Last year, Azerbaijan’s autocratic regime launched a military offensive against the ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to the cleansing of approximately 120,000 ethnic Armenians. Following a 2022 incursion into Armenia, Azerbaijan occupies more than 200 sq. kilometers of territory of the Republic of Armenia.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s internal repression continues to intensify, with well-documented crackdowns on activists and opposition groups. Azerbaijan has also refused to release Armenian prisoners of war, despite international calls for their repatriation.
Despite peace talks between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Baku has recently ground negotiations to a halt with increasing demands for concessions from Armenia.
President Aliyev has continued to escalate his rhetoric, having repeatedly described the Republic of Armenia as “western Azerbaijan,” and is drawing closer to Russia, who did nothing as Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
Despite this, and in the face of Armenia’s historic military and economic reliance on Russia, Prime Minister Pashinyan has made the bold decision to consolidate Armenian democracy and seek closer ties with the west—work that we are proud to support.
Yerevan has organized military exercises with the United States, sought new economic ties with Europe, ratified the ICC Rome Statute, and announced its intention to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s post-Soviet answer to NATO. At a difficult moment for global democracy, Armenia—living in the long shadows of Russia, Turkey, and Iran—is a rare bright spot.
However, cementing Armenia’s democratic foundations and securing a lasting peace in the South Caucasus will ultimately require Europe to play a more concerted role—including at COP29.
Earlier this year, European leaders took a significant step by agreeing to use funds from the European Peace Facility to provide non-lethal defensive equipment to Armenia. More should now follow to enhance Armenia’s deterrence capabilities and lessen its dependence on Russia.
Lethal military aid, joint exercises between European and Armenian forces, and the significant expansion of the EU monitoring mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border would be welcome, important, and timely steps towards strengthening Armenia’s defensive capabilities and preventing future Azeri hostility. Europe should also liberalize trade in the service sector with Armenia, which has significant untapped potential.
These proposals form the foundation of a report we authored earlier this year on how to deepen ties between Europe and Armenia.
But equally important this November is the need for those of you attending COP29 to stand up for the values that Europe represents.
Europe has long viewed itself as a neutral arbiter between Azerbaijan and Armenia—but that approach is no longer fit for purpose.
In visiting Baku, you must shine a light on Azerbaijan’s repression at home. You must stand up for democratic Armenia and make clear that Azerbaijan’s hostility is unacceptable—and that further aggression against Armenia would have severe consequences.
Europe remains a major trading partner for Azerbaijan. We have leverage—and we must use it. This must include making clear to Baku that the time has come to reach an agreement for a sustainable peace with Armenia, to secure the safe and dignified return of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the immediate release of all Armenian prisoners of war held in Azerbaijan.
Peace would open the door to new economic opportunities across the South Caucasus. The Armenian government has proposed a “Crossroads of Peace” of energy, transport, and logistics connections across the South Caucasus, which if implemented, could bring significant economic benefits for Europe while advancing the cause of peace in the region.
A peace agreement would reduce Russia’s influence and lay the foundation for Armenia’s continued westward trajectory. But most importantly, an agreement would help usher in a new era of prosperity and security for both Armenians and Azeris at a time when the people of both countries are looking to turn the page on decades of conflict and hostility.
The Aliyev regime have said they want this year’s climate summit to be a “COP of Peace.”
You must make clear to Azerbaijan that a “COP of Peace” must begin by agreeing a lasting peace with Armenia.
Sincerely yours,
As members of the Friends of Armenia Network
Anders Fogh Rasmussen: Secretary General of NATO (2009-2014), Prime Minister of Denmark (2001-2009)
Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz: Member of the European Parliament (2019-…), Prime Minister of Poland (1996-1997), Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (2001-2005)
Charles Flanagan: Member of the Irish Oireachtas (2020-…), Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence (2020-…), Ireland’s Minister of Justice (2017-2020), Ireland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (2014-2017)
Raimundas Lopata: Member of the Lithuanian Seimas (2020-…), Chair of the Parliamentary Friendship Group with Armenia (2020-…)
Dietmar Nietan: Member of the German Bundestag (1998-2002, 2005-…), Treasurer of the Social Democratic Party.