This report highlights key lessons learned from Ukraine in the context of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure following the full-scale invasion in 2022.

The report focuses on operators of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power plants. The findings are based on interviews with stakeholders directly involved in Ukraine’s energy sector, along with insights from a Rasmussen Global field visit to Kyiv in late February 2025, as Ukraine marked the third anniversary of the devastating war launched by Russia. The report has been produced jointly by the Rasmussen Global teams in Copenhagen and Kyiv.

Ukraine’s energy system is highly centralised, in contrast to the decentralised energy networks found
across much of Europe. The war has underscored the need to decentralise Ukraine’s energy system.
This shift aligns with the expertise of companies, whose operations reflect the EU’s decentralized energy
model that Ukraine aspires to emulate. However, preparedness for missile or drone attacks on energy
infrastructure requires measures beyond decentralisation alone. It demands a robust framework of
physical, cyber, and personnel protection protocols – measures Ukrainian companies have been
compelled to adopt over the past three years to adapt to wartime realities.

At the fourth year of the full-scale invasion, it remains early to draw definitive conclusions about what
constitutes a resilient energy system in the current turbulent geopolitical context. However, there are
already valuable lessons emerging from Ukraine at both the operational (company) and policy
(governmental) levels regarding strengthening energy resilience and preparedness in anticipation of
potential hybrid or armed conflicts.

Companies in Europe should adopt a structured approach and review existing risk management
strategies to ensure these are fit-for-purpose in an era marked by increased geopolitical uncertainty.
Governments across Europe need to consider how best to support companies in these efforts, including
creating regulatory frameworks that enhance overall European energy resilience, particularly at the EU
level.

To read the full report: Resilience Under Fire

Today, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen launched the Global Space Council, a group of space leaders and experts who will raise political and public awareness about the threats posed by the overcrowding of outer space and the overconsumption of our shared space resources.

In 2018, there were roughly 2,000 active satellites in space. That number has exceeded 10,000 today, and there could be 100,000 or more active satellites by the end of the decade. NASA cites the resulting collision risk as the number one threat to the spacecraft and satellites that are essential to national security and the functioning of many aspects of our daily lives.

Speaking after the launch of the Global Space Council, Anders Fogh Rasmussen said:

“Space is a geopolitical and economic frontline—and I believe that the rapid overcrowding of our orbits is an overlooked threat to national security, sovereignty, and the ability of Europe and our allies to safely access space and support the services it enables every day.

“As more and more satellites are launched into our orbits—increasing the risks of collisions and radio spectrum interference—governments around the world must take this issue seriously. If they do not, we will collectively jeopardize our access to space—and the security, connectivity, and environmental repercussions will be lasting.”

The Global Space Council will meet regularly in the coming months, and will develop a report with a series of proposals to urge governments to take concrete action to safeguard our orbits and spectrum.

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Anders Fogh Rasmussen is a former Secretary General of NATO, Prime Minister of Denmark, and member of the European Space Agency’s High Level Advisory Group. He is Chairman of the Global Space Council.

In their personal capacities, other members include:

Marc Garneau, Canada: Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, former President of the Canadian Space Agency, former astronaut.

Agostinho Linhares, Brazil: Executive Director of the Instituto de Pesquisa para Economia Digital – Digital Economy Research Institute.

Marietje Schaake, The Netherlands: Non-Resident Fellow at the Stanford University Cyber Policy Centre and former Member of the European Parliament.

Tidiane Ouattara, Ivory Coast: President of the Space Council of the African Space Agency.

Boris Otter, Switzerland: Founding President of Swiss Space Tourism.

Xavier Pasco, France: Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research.

Nicolas Walter, France: CEO of the European Science Foundation.

Ranjana Kaul, India: Partner at Dua Associates, Vice-President of the International Institute for Space Law, and Subject Matter Expert on the National Advisory Committee of the Indian Space Association.

Masami Onoda, Japan: Director of the International Relations and Research Department at the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

More information will be made available here: https://www.globalspacecoalition.org/

Former NATO Secretary General recommends new transatlantic burden-sharing formula following Donald Trump’s re-election

For immediate release:

Anders Fogh Rasmussen today presented recommendations for a new European security plan for Ukraine.

Following the re-election of US president Donald Trump, Mr. Rasmussen argues that an acceptable resolution to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will require Europe and Ukraine to together strike a mutually beneficial deal with the president-elect. This agreement must be defined by a renewed burden-sharing formula that would see Europe assuming greater responsibility for European and Ukrainian security—both now and in the future.

Key recommendations from Mr. Rasmussen’s proposal include:

• A gradual transition from a roughly 50-50 burden-sharing formula in Ukraine to one which would see Europe assuming 70 per cent of the costs associated with Ukraine’s short- and long-term security.
• A European led train-and-advise mission in western Ukraine as both immediate support for Ukraine and a long-term demonstration of Europe’s commitment to leading future peace-enforcement deployments.
• An increase of NATO’s defence spending target to three per cent of GDP, and a commitment that 0.5 per cent of allies’ GDP would be spent on support for Ukraine.
• Robust European-backed security guarantees for Ukraine as an interim measure prior to Ukraine’s NATO accession.
• The replacement of all Russian LNG imports to Europe with imports primarily from the United States.

Speaking in Brussels following the release of his recommendations, Mr. Rasmussen said:

“Europe faces an existential threat. The security model that has underpinned peace and prosperity in Europe for decades no longer exists—and it is not coming back. Europe urgently needs a security plan that can counter Russia’s aggression, help secure a sustainable peace in Ukraine, and keep the United States engaged in the transatlantic alliance.”

Mr. Rasmussen’s full proposal can be found here.

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For media: media@rasmussenglobal.com

Sanctions are a vital tool in targeting Russia’s war capabilities.

The EU progressively imposed sanctions against Russia following the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU adopted new, sweeping sanctions against Moscow.

However, Russia has been effective at devising schemes for restoring supply chains interrupted by sanctions.

Our sanctions experts at Rasmussen Global have been tracking and shaping the EU’s evolving sanctions regime since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. In our latest paper, we outline opportunities for strengthening Europe’s sanctions regime, and propose new areas to target in order to deprive the Kremlin of the funding it needs to continue its war in Ukraine.

To read the paper, please click here: Rasmussen Global – Sanctions Memo – Fall 2024

Open letter from Anders Fogh Rasmussen and members of the Friends of Armenia Network ahead of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan

To Those Attending COP29 In Baku,

The irony of the world’s most important climate conference being held in Baku will certainly not be lost on you. Fossil fuels represent 90 per cent of all Azeri exports.

But this year’s COP must not be a repeat of 2023’s greenwashing exercise in Dubai.

Last year, Azerbaijan’s autocratic regime launched a military offensive against the ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to the cleansing of approximately 120,000 ethnic Armenians. Following a 2022 incursion into Armenia, Azerbaijan occupies more than 200 sq. kilometers of territory of the Republic of Armenia.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s internal repression continues to intensify, with well-documented crackdowns on activists and opposition groups. Azerbaijan has also refused to release Armenian prisoners of war, despite international calls for their repatriation.

Despite peace talks between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Baku has recently ground negotiations to a halt with increasing demands for concessions from Armenia.

President Aliyev has continued to escalate his rhetoric, having repeatedly described the Republic of Armenia as “western Azerbaijan,” and is drawing closer to Russia, who did nothing as Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.

Despite this, and in the face of Armenia’s historic military and economic reliance on Russia, Prime Minister Pashinyan has made the bold decision to consolidate Armenian democracy and seek closer ties with the west—work that we are proud to support.

Yerevan has organized military exercises with the United States, sought new economic ties with Europe, ratified the ICC Rome Statute, and announced its intention to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s post-Soviet answer to NATO. At a difficult moment for global democracy, Armenia—living in the long shadows of Russia, Turkey, and Iran—is a rare bright spot.

However, cementing Armenia’s democratic foundations and securing a lasting peace in the South Caucasus will ultimately require Europe to play a more concerted role—including at COP29.

Earlier this year, European leaders took a significant step by agreeing to use funds from the European Peace Facility to provide non-lethal defensive equipment to Armenia. More should now follow to enhance Armenia’s deterrence capabilities and lessen its dependence on Russia.

Lethal military aid, joint exercises between European and Armenian forces, and the significant expansion of the EU monitoring mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border would be welcome, important, and timely steps towards strengthening Armenia’s defensive capabilities and preventing future Azeri hostility. Europe should also liberalize trade in the service sector with Armenia, which has significant untapped potential.

These proposals form the foundation of a report we authored earlier this year on how to deepen ties between Europe and Armenia.

But equally important this November is the need for those of you attending COP29 to stand up for the values that Europe represents.

Europe has long viewed itself as a neutral arbiter between Azerbaijan and Armenia—but that approach is no longer fit for purpose.

In visiting Baku, you must shine a light on Azerbaijan’s repression at home. You must stand up for democratic Armenia and make clear that Azerbaijan’s hostility is unacceptable—and that further aggression against Armenia would have severe consequences.

Europe remains a major trading partner for Azerbaijan. We have leverage—and we must use it. This must include making clear to Baku that the time has come to reach an agreement for a sustainable peace with Armenia, to secure the safe and dignified return of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the immediate release of all Armenian prisoners of war held in Azerbaijan.

Peace would open the door to new economic opportunities across the South Caucasus. The Armenian government has proposed a “Crossroads of Peace” of energy, transport, and logistics connections across the South Caucasus, which if implemented, could bring significant economic benefits for Europe while advancing the cause of peace in the region.

A peace agreement would reduce Russia’s influence and lay the foundation for Armenia’s continued westward trajectory. But most importantly, an agreement would help usher in a new era of prosperity and security for both Armenians and Azeris at a time when the people of both countries are looking to turn the page on decades of conflict and hostility.

The Aliyev regime have said they want this year’s climate summit to be a “COP of Peace.”

You must make clear to Azerbaijan that a “COP of Peace” must begin by agreeing a lasting peace with Armenia.

Sincerely yours,

As members of the Friends of Armenia Network

Anders Fogh Rasmussen: Secretary General of NATO (2009-2014), Prime Minister of Denmark (2001-2009)

Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz: Member of the European Parliament (2019-…), Prime Minister of Poland (1996-1997), Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (2001-2005)

Charles Flanagan: Member of the Irish Oireachtas (2020-…), Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence (2020-…), Ireland’s Minister of Justice (2017-2020), Ireland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (2014-2017)

Raimundas Lopata: Member of the Lithuanian Seimas (2020-…), Chair of the Parliamentary Friendship Group with Armenia (2020-…)

Dietmar Nietan: Member of the German Bundestag (1998-2002, 2005-…), Treasurer of the Social Democratic Party.

Following Russia’s illegal 2022 invasion of Ukraine, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy asked Anders Fogh Rasmussen to co-lead with his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, an international working group on long-term security commitments for Ukraine. 

The resulting Kyiv Security Compact—a proposal for a web of international security guarantees for Ukraine—became the foundation of a G7 joint declaration on security guarantees co-signed by NATO allies at the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius. 23 allies of Ukraine have since signed comprehensive, long-term security agreements, including the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. At the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington, these agreements were formalized in the Ukraine Compact, bringing to life the vision proposed by Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Andriy Yermak. 

While the security agreements outlined in the Ukraine Compact are not a replacement for Ukraine’s future in NATO, they will serve as an important bridge to membership and are unparalleled in modern history. 

Below, you can find an overview of the different Capability Coalitions, as well as a document containing links to the individual security agreements between Ukraine and its allies. 

To access links to individual security agreements, please click here.